All the Marbles
Last week, the awards seemed to follow the hype. Irritating, but not surprising to anyone...except for one. The Cousy committee must have been instructed to ignore all first-team point guards when making their decision. Honestly, I have no idea how Maryland's Greivis Vasquez came out the winner, but I digress.
On to the more important subject at hand, the national title game tonight. The Butler Bulldogs are starring in quite the underdog story. If they win, I imagine years from now the recollection would begin with, "Since the beginning of time, everyone hated Duke..." Well, everyone hated their fans at least. And the beginning of time is more like since the beginning of Coach K's tenure. Whatever way the story is told, I think most of America is hoping they get a chance to tell it.
Seems a little too good to be true though, right? Coach K has three decades and three national titles on Butler's Brad Stevens. It's not often teams like Butler walk away with the glass slipper but then again, it is not often the Cinderellas play in the national title game.
Butler can win because:
-The five seed has had a more trying road to the title game. The very nature of "The Underdog" is to be underappreciated and overlooked, something Butler will use to its advantage. I think that regardless of how much they have accomplished, most of us will still think they can fall to any big name they encounter.
-Butler deserves the vote of confidence tonight because they have sophomore forward Gordon Hayward on their side. Hayward is the most talented player you will see in Lucas Oil Stadium this evening, not simply because he contributes about 15 points a game, but because he is dangerous in many different facets. Hayward plays perimeter defense better than anyone on the roster and can be used in the lane when needed (and that just may be tonight, if Matt Howard does not play). Hayward is not the only Bulldog who is effective on defense...Butler has held 2010 tournament opponents to under 60 points each game. Pretty impressive to folks like me, who believe lack of defense is most detrimental in tournament viability.
-The strength in Butler's defense is also part of their offensive success...they play like a team. Sounds simple, but very few teams in NCAA basketball play in true unison anymore. Too often we forget the importance of things like steals, assists, and loose balls when we predict the success of a team. Butler has the upper hand in those categories, and it may prove enough to tighten the offensive margin.
-Finally, the Bulldogs will be playing the big game not even 10 miles from Hinkle Fieldhouse. I will avoid making any reference to "Hoosiers" because I think we've all heard enough of those. I will say, rather, that being the underdog in your hometown has to help ease any of the stigma associated with the name.
Duke can win because:
-Well, because it's Duke and you've got to think someone out there really wants this to happen again. Including me? Did I mention I've never been a Duke fan?
-If Brian Zoubek is being guarded by anyone on the Butler roster BUT Howard, the Dogs are in trouble. If Howard is able to play, I'm not certain he will be able to put up his best performance. I've said this more times than I'd like to admit; Duke is an incredible offensive rebounding team. Zoubek is a major ingredient in the Devil's o-board success, and that advantage could be too much for Butler to overcome.
-Butler may have the best individual player, but Duke has got safety in numbers. The three 'S's, [Jon] Scheyer, [Nolan] Smith and [Kyle] Singler, combined for 63 points on Saturday against West Virginia. Providing enough pressure to the big three is a near-impossible task for any team, no matter how good the defense.
-Duke also has Coach K. As everyone knows, he is one of the most successful coaches of all time, and certainly one most notorious. The underdogs have their young coach in Stevens, who began his career as a volunteer. Makes for a good story, but will he really be able to outcoach the legend? I wish the answer was yes, but there is rarely a second of game clock Krzyzewski allows to be wasted. That is why there is so little a margin of error for teams matching up against Duke. It is going to be difficult for a rookie coach to be flawless in his coaching execution, but that seems like the only way to ensure a fairytale ending.
If I have learned anything this season though, it is don't count out the mid- major and don't underestimate what you've convinced yourself to be the impossible. If you have your life savings on the line, you probably cannot afford to assume the win to Butler. However, every team has its off day. Karma could just deliver that off day for Duke in the title game.
(c) 2008 - 2010 Canwest Publishing Inc
Kentucky Now The Favorite
The first weekend of the NCAA college basketball tournament was filled with upsets and surprises. That start was followed up with Syracuse and Ohio State being ousted in the Sweet Sixteen. Now, the Elite Eight is starting and Kentucky is the new favorite.
The Wildcats have been blowing out their opponents through their first three tournament games. Kentucky easily dismantled their two opponents last weekend, then throttled Cornell on Thursday night.
The win over Cornell was particularly impressive because it was a team that many analysts thought would give the Wildcats trouble. Instead, Kentucky used their dominating inside presence to wear down Cornell.
Joining Kentucky in the Elite Eight is West Virginia. The Mountaineers and Wildcats may be the two best teams left in the tournament, and they face off this evening with a Final Four appearance on the line.
Duke has made it through to the Elite Eight as a number one seed. They will face a Baylor team on Sunday that was up thirty points at halftime against their last opponent, St. Mary's. Baylor is the third ranked team in the region.
One region that has been overcome with upsets is the Midwest. All four top seeds are gone, leaving number five Michigan State and number six Tennessee to battle for a trip to the Big Dance in Indianapolis.
The last of the four quarter-final games features Kansas State and Butler. Kansas State has been steady throughout the tournament, and will try to avoid another upset bid by Butler. Already, Butler has sent top seed Syracuse home.
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Virginia Tech Hokies put UConn Huskies out of season-long miseryThe Virginia Tech Hokies remain motivated despite the NCAA Tournament snub. The Connecticut Huskies have been underachieving all season. Hokies win in a romp.
The NIT is about more than basketball talent. A successful bettor has to determine which team is actually interested in playing in the tournament. We're going to have an unexpected blowout on Monday night because a team that is playing with a chip on its shoulder is meeting a team that has been playing out the string for a month.
The outcome is not going to be pretty for a perennial Final Four contender.
Monday evening on ESPN, Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg will host a matchup of two teams that hoped to play their way into the NCAA Tournament when the Connecticut Huskies (18-15) meet the Virginia Tech Hokies (24-8).
The Huskies squeaked by Northeastern by a single point in their opening round game last Tuesday night. The Hokies defeated Quinnipiac by 20 points on Wednesday. Virginia Tech opened as a 4 ½-point favorite, although you can currently find a four-point spread at many books.
The Sagarin Ratings indicate that the line may be a bit low. Virginia Tech is ranked 34th with a power rating of 84.74. Connecticut is ranked 60th at 81.54. After applying Sagarin's standard home-court advantage, the Hokies should be seven-point favorites.
The Predictor Ratings favor Virginia Tech by a margin of 84.04-82.35, a 5 1/2-point advantage with home court.
Virginia Tech is looking forward to a chance to play UConn. The Hokies were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament, but coach Seth Greenberg is doing an excellent job motivating his club to play in the NIT. The Hartford Courant recently published an article on Greenberg and his squad in which Greenberg called this game an "important step as we continue to grow our basketball culture."
He continued, "We were disappointed at first (in regard to the NCAA Tournament), but we're playing a two-time national champion."
Guard Dorenzo Hudson discusses the importance of playing the Huskies in the same article. It is interesting to note that the Hartford Courant has no quotes from Jim Calhoun or his Huskies about the upcoming game.
The Huskies have been sleepwalking since a February 28 loss to Louisville. Including that game, UConn is 1-4 in its last five games, with the only win a one-point victory over Northeastern in the first round of the NIT. This is an extremely talented team. It is also a team, however, that is not motivated to play in the NIT
The Hokies are 15-1 at home this season, while the Huskies are a poor 2-8 on the road. There is no reason to think that these trends will reverse Monday evening. Once again, we have to look at the betting psychology behind this contest. The recreational bettor is going to back UConn based on name recognition alone. Some experienced bettors may fall into that trap as well, thinking that the Huskies are too talented for the Hokies. This will be an expensive mistake.
The Hokies are going to come out firing at home, feeling like they have something to prove against the Huskies. UConn is likely to be flat, as they have been for weeks, and will not be able to recover against a motivated Virginia Tech squad.
Take the home team playing with something to prove over the disinterested road team. The Hokies win this game in a rout.
Copyright (c) SBR Forum
College Basketball Postseason Preview
In season's past I have written a monthly feature column for a casino lifestyle and gaming magazine while also providing my thoughts, insight and analysis on a regular basis at Sportsmemo.com. With the NCAA Tournament providing one of the biggest betting events of the year I thought I would review some basic strategies and keys to NCAA Tournament success. It's time to get yourself primed and ready to attack the basket and the bookmaker with the NCAA Tournament 'Selection Sunday' ready to tip off tomorrow.
I've been riding quite a few betting favorites in College Conference Tournament (CCT) action, and after a hot start we're back to par in postseason play. We're always firing many shots at this time of year and we'll be using some strong historical situations along with our proven stat profiles, match-ups and some teams we've already identified for a positive, productive postseason run. As long as the match-ups and betting lines are in order, we'll be ready to fire when the lines come out for next week's opening round action.
With the NCAA, NIT, CBI and CIT tournaments on the horizon, the astute handicapper, bettor and fan can better position themselves for winning success in betting games or tournament pools by knowing the strengths and weaknesses of both conferences and teams. For the past five seasons I've been producing some very solid profits for myself and personal clients with over 56% success on over 250 postseason college basketball plays. The NCAA Tournament is the most exciting time of the year for many sports bettors, and we hope to make it fun and profitable yet again while chipping-in additional profits in the additional CBB postseason tournaments.
I've outlined some thoughts and key considerations in handicapping college basketball and tournament play. While there have been changes in the college game over the years with the shot clock and 3-point line (over 20 years ago!), the fundamentals of college basketball remain the same when evaluating the match-ups. I have relied on the these fundamentals and match-ups along with situations, scheduling, coaching, intangibles, a touch of technical analysis and of course energy and emotion to produce outstanding documented results and profits over the past five postseasons.
In an elimination format of the NCAA Tournament and any postseason game, one poor stretch of play or a scoring drought can quickly end a team's season. Likewise, a team that gets hot from the 3-point arch can ride that momentum to a victory. When handicapping a contest, the biggest statistical discrepancy can come in 3-point shooting, yet it is the hardest to predict. Evaluating how a team and players will perform under pressure in an elimination format can be a challenge. The difficulty for many handicappers and bettors is breaking down the match-ups with less familiar teams. Evaluating the statistical information, interpreting the data and analyzing how teams and players will perform when facing a different level of class opponent often keeps bettors away from unknown teams. That's where the intangibles of coaching, momentum, injuries, experience, leadership and team chemistry play a part. The technical side of the equation comes in evaluating situations and past performance such as a team's strength of schedule, performance playing on the road, results and level of play versus quality teams and understanding contrary patterns. Of course, once you think you have a good match-up and situation, you have to evaluate the point spread and beat the bookmaker!
We can discuss quality guard play, interior post presence, 3-point and free throw shooting, pace of play and a go-to-guy in any match-up. But in so many contests, the team that defends the best, rebounds and takes care of the basketball can often overcome the opponent or their own off-shooting night. I've identified some key considerations when handicapping college basketball and postseason play, so check early next week and I'll fire a few thoughts and 'Fairway Fundamentals' your way as you forecast the upcoming NCAA tournament and postseason games.
Copyright (c) 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC
College Mens Basketball Top 25 Action
UNDATED (AP) - For the second straight Saturday the number-1 men's basketball team was knocked off on the road. The Louisville Cardinals gave Freedom Hall a proper send-off by knocking off top-ranked Syracuse 78-68. The Cardinals stormed back from a 35-30 halftime deficit and topped the Orange in Louisville's final game at Freedom Hall.
Kyle Kuric scored all of his career-high 22 points in the second half, shooting 9-for-11 and hitting four three-pointers in the Cards' 20th victory. t's the sixth straight time the Cardinals have beaten the Orange, including twice this season. They could meet again in the Big East tournament next week.
Another stunner occurred in Manhattan, Kansas, where fifth-ranked Kansas State fell to Iowa State 85-82 in overtime.Craig Brackins contributed 19 points and Dionte Garrett scored five of his eight points in OT to help the Cyclones end a 21-game losing streak against ranked opponents.
- Second-ranked Kansas rolled over Missouri 77-56. Marcus Morris had a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. This was the Jayhawks' 1,999th victory as they try to join Kentucky and North Carolina in the 2,000 club.
- Duke earned a share of the ACC regular-season title with Maryland by clobbering North Carolina 82-50. Kyle Singler scored 19 of his 25 points while the Blue Devils were building a 27-point halftime lead en route to their most lopsided home win over the Tar Heels.
- JaJuan Johnson had 21 points and 10 rebounds and No. 7 Purdue clinched a share of its first Big Ten title in 14 years with a 64-60 win at Penn State.
- Tenth-ranked West Virginia rallied from 14 points down to nip ninth-ranked Villanova 68-66 in overtime. Da'Sean Butler hit the winning shot with a runner in the lane with 5.8 seconds to play. Butler led West Virginia with 21 points, 10 rebounds and two assists.
- Matt Howard finished with 18 points and Ronald Nored chipped in 13 points and eight rebounds to push 12th-ranked Butler over Wisconsin-Milwaukee 68-59.
- South Carolina upset 13th-ranked Vanderbilt 77-73 on the Commodores' home court as Vandy blew a 10-point lead. Devan Downey hit a tiebreaking three-pointer with 1:48 left and scored 22 of his game-high 26 in the second half.
- Jonathan Tavernari scored 23 points, and Jackson Emery and Charles Abouo each added 22 as No. 14 BYU ripped TCU 107-77.
- J.P Prince dropped in 16 points and 16th-ranked Tennessee didn't allow a point over the first six minutes of a 75-59 triumph at Mississippi State.
- Gilbert Brown scored 19 points and No. 17 Pittsburgh put together an early 19-2 run in an 83-54 blowout of Rutgers, giving the Panthers the second seed in the Big East tourney.
- Six days after being diagnosed with diabetes, Austin Freeman was back in the starting lineup and scoring 24 points for 19th-rated Georgetown in a 74-47 victory over Cincinnati.
- Michael Eric scored 18 points to help No. 20 Temple beat George Washington 70-57, giving the Owls a share of the Atlantic 10 title and earn the top need in next week's conference tournament.
- LaceDarius Dunn scored 30 points, Quincy Acy had 10 dunks among his 24 points and No. 21 Baylor wrapped up its winningest regular season in 64 years by clobbering Texas 92-77.
- Greivis (GREE'-vihs) Vasquez scored 23 and 22nd-ranked Maryland survived a spirited comeback by Virginia, 74-68.
- Khris Middleton scored 15 points, Bryan Davis added 13 points and 10 rebounds and No. 23 Texas A&M dominated the paint for a 69-54 victory against tumbling Oklahoma.
- Derrick Caracter scored the final six points for UTEP, including a game-winning dunk with one second left lifted the 24th-ranked Miners over UAB 52-50.
- Jordan Crawford scored 22 points and No. 25 Xavier claimed a share of its fourth straight Atlantic 10 regular-season title by beating St. Bonaventure 93-72.
wjbdradio.com
Stonehill basketball team set to host NE-10 tournament gamesEASTON -- The Stonehill College basketball teams begin their quests for Northeast-10 Conference tournament championships at home tonight and Tuesday night.
The top-seeded Stonehill men (23-4, ranked 18th in the national Div. 2 poll) host ninth-seeded Adelphi University (20-10) this evening at Merkert Gym.
The third-seeded Stonehill women (21-8) entertain sixth-seeded Assumption College (16-12) on Tuesday night. Both quarterfinal-round games begin at 7 p.m.
The Skyhawks' men's team won the regular-season title with a 20-2 record and take an eight-game winning streak into the postseason. Stonehill has won 14 of its last 15 games, losing only to Le Moyne College on Jan. 26 in that stretch.
"It's hard not feel good about your team when you've won eight in a row," said coach David McLaughlin, whose Skyhawks have home-court advantage throughout the tourney "We had a good practice (on Saturday), and that's how I judge things, by how we're practicing.
"We're a hungry team and we're rested. We just have to keep doing what we do well."
Stonehill slipped past Adelphi, 60-59, in New York on Jan. 23 when guard Randall Stallworth hit two foul shots with nine seconds to go in overtime.
The Panthers went 12-10 in the NE-10, then won an opening-round tournament game on the road on Saturday afternoon, eliminating American International College, 57-45.
Adelphi got off to a 14-1 start this season before losing eight of 10 games, including six in a row, in January and early February. The Panthers have won four of their last five games since then.
"They are a very physical team and very good defensively," said McLaughlin, the NE-10 coach of the year. "They are an experienced team with three seniors and one junior starting. We had a tough game with them.
"This is a good team. They won 20 games (overall) and they are the No. 9 seed. It's the league. What league has a No. 9 seed that won 20 games?"
Adelphi is led by Richard Byrd, who averages 19.1 points and 5.6 rebounds, and Casey Cosgrove, who is averaging 11.1 points and 5.5 assists.
The Panthers are among the top defensive teams in the NE-10, allowing 61.5 points, which is second to Stonehill (59.0).
Defense and rebounding have been the keys to the Skyhawks' success, and seniors A.J. Rudowitz (14.2 points) and Stallworth (12.7 points, four assists) lead the offense.
The Stonehill women earned the No. 3 seed by winning at Bentley University on the final night of the regular season.
"They are a young team with very good guards," said Skyhawks coach Trisha Brown of Assumption. "They've got a good post presence in Kayla Parker (11.7 points, six rebounds). They are a balanced team (with guard Gabrielle Gibson leading the offense)."
Stonehill won the lone regular-season meeting with the Greyhounds, 81-68, in Worcester on Jan. 12. Guard Emily Rousseau had 18 points while Kelsey Simonds of Middleboro added 16 to go with eight rebounds.
Assumption advanced with a 77-70 win over Southern New Hampshire University on Sunday afternoon.
The Skyhawks have a four-game winning streak after dropping four straight games when Simonds, the leading scorer and rebounder, was sidelined with a sprained ankle. The Cardinal Spellman High graduate returned on Feb. 13 against Saint Michael's when the winning streak started.
"I think we've shown some good improvement over the last few games," said Brown. "The bumps in the road we had down the stretch were disappointing, but I'm happy with how we've been playing. We have had a better defensive effort (allowing 39, 34, 48 and 53 points in the last four games) and that will help us going into the playoffs.
"I feel good about where we are headed in the playoffs. It could be a good run for us."
Copyright (c) 2006–2010 GateHouse Media, Inc
Falcons drop fifth straight
The UTPB men's basketball team dropped a 66-50 decision to Heartland Conference provisional member Arkansas-Fort Smith at the Falcon Dome on Saturday.
For the Falcons (6-17, 3-9), the loss represented the fifth consecutive defeat, but UTPB head coach Dwaine Osborne finally saw some fight in his team.
Justin Bailey led UTPB with 21 points, and Keenan Gay chipped in 11 points and 10 rebounds.
More importantly, the Falcons didn't back down in a physical contest that featured 35 combined fouls in the second half.
"Lately, I've been disappointed in our effort and our toughness," Osborne said. "Tonight, we didn't shoot the ball well, but we really battled and fought."
Chris Williams led Arkansas-Fort Smith (6-17) with 19 points and nine rebounds.
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